
Image courtesy of Michael Schofield
Trump Administration Enacts Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China
The speculation is over. President Donald J. Trump is engaging in a forceful trade war with historical allies and world powers.
Starting at 12:01AM on Tuesday, February 4, 2025, there will be tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump has made it clear he will not be afraid to raise the tariffs further or to place more tariffs on additional countries. UPDATE: FEBRUARY 4, 2025 9:30AM ET. Following productive conversations with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada and President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, the Trump Tariffs have been put on a thirty day pause. Prime Minister Trudeau agreed to set up a US-Canada task force and move a $1.3 billion plan created in December into an action phase. President Sheinbaum said she would send 10,000 Mexican troops to the border. Meanwhile, China retaliated with duties of their own, including a 15% tax on coal and liquefied natural gas and a 10% tariff on crude oil and vehicles. The Chinese taxes and tariffs will go into effect on February 10.
Trump posted on Truth Social that “We don’t need anything [Canada has]. We have unlimited Energy [sic], should make our own Cars [sic], and have more Lumber [sic] than we can ever use.” However, as many importers, exporters, and regular people learned during the pandemic, it is not a simple matter of untangling the United States from the global supply chain. Another example of the interconnectedness of the global economy is how shipments around the world were affected by a blockage in the Suez Canal. Financial analysts are bracing for falling stocks. Dow futures, S&P 500 futures, and Nasdaq futures fell between 1.3-1.7% on the first day of trading following Trump’s executive order.
Explaining The New Tariffs
Specific details, including key information about when the tariffs might be lifted, are scant. Here’s what we know:
There will be a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico. UPDATE: 12PM ET February 3rd. Trump announces he will “immediately pause” Mexico tariffs for one month following a conversation with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico.
There will be a 10% tariff on all imports from China.
There will be a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada, except for a 10% tariff on oil and energy imports.
A few notable exceptions to these tariffs include: international communication (mail, phone calls, etc.), informational materials (film, photographs, artwork, etc.), travel (including personal baggage).
Most importantly, the tariffs do not make room for the de minimis exclusion. This means that there are no tariff exemptions for shipments under $800.
Lastly, if goods are on a vessel or in transit on the final mode of transport by the 12:01AM ET on Saturday, February 1st or have entered a warehouse for consumption before the deadline of 12:01AM ET on Tuesday, February 4th, the goods will not be subject to tariffs.
How Will Americans Be Affected By The Trump Tariffs?

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The President acknowledged that inflation could rise, in contrast with his campaign promises, by saying on Truth Social, “THIS WILL BE THE GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA! WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!)”
Many people want to know what specific goods could see price spikes due to tariffs.
The biggest sticker shock is likely to be for the auto industry. TD Economics forecasts that car prices will rise about $3,000. “You have engines and car seats and other things that cross the border multiple times before going into a finished vehicle,” said Scott Lincicome, a trade analyst at the libertarian Cato Institute. “You have American parts going to Mexico to be put into vehicles that are then shipped back to the United States.”
Canada is the biggest supplier of crude oil, shipping $90 billion worth in 2024. This is likely the reason for the carve out for energy being 15% less than the overall tariff on America’s northern neighbor. Predictions are less certain in this area, with gas prices forecasted to rise anywhere from 30 cents to 70 cents per gallon.
Another area where consumers can expect to see higher prices is with electronics. This is due to computer chips, integral for everything from cell phones to medical devices to smart home appliances, which are manufactured in China.
Consumable goods, ranging from Mexican tequila and Canadian whiskey to vegetables, fruits, and nuts, are likely to see higher prices at the grocery store. On the flip side, the governments of Canada and Mexico have said they will respond with tariffs of their own. That means American grown products like soybeans and corn are likely to suffer on international markets.
Will Tariffs Be Lifted Or Are More Coming?

Image courtesy of Lenny Kuhne
The stated goal of this wave of tariffs is to curb illegal immigration from Canada and Mexico and stem the tide of fentanyl from Canada, Mexico, and China. The White House says the tariffs will be implemented, “until the crisis is alleviated.” There were an estimated 200,000 illegal or irregular border crossings on the Canadian border in 2024, compared to 2.5 million from the Mexican border. However, there are no benchmarks included from the administration of when they consider the emergency situation resolved.
Buoyed by his success with threatening tariffs on Colombia last week, Trump is confident he will notch several more quick wins. The president has spoken of his admiration of William McKinley, who employed tariffs in 1890 as part of a protectionist strategy for the American economy during the Gilded Age. Not only has Trump said he will install 100% tariffs on the BRICS countries if they try to create their own currency, he has mused that tariffs for the European Union “could definitely happen.”
Many thought Trump was bluffing with all his talk of tariffs. It is no longer a bluff. The best defense for businesses is to stock warehouses as much as possible, especially if they rely on goods from Europe or other BRICS countries like Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa.
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